Permit me to
start by thanking Chatham House for the invitation to talk about this important
topic at this crucial time. When speaking about Nigeria overseas, I normally
prefer to be my country’s public relations and marketing officer, extolling her
virtues and hoping to attract investments and tourists. But as we all know,
Nigeria is now battling with many challenges, and if I refer to them, I do so
only to impress on our friends in the United Kingdom that we are quite aware of
our shortcomings and are doing our best to address them.
he 2015 general
election in Nigeria is generating a lot of interests within and outside the
country. This is understandable. Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country and
largest economy, is at a defining moment, a moment that has great implications
beyond the democratic project and beyond the borders of my dear country.
So let me say
upfront that the global interest in Nigeria’s landmark election is not
misplaced at all and indeed should be commended; for this is an election that
has serious import for the world. I urge the international community to
continue to focus on Nigeria at this very critical moment. Given increasing
global linkages, it is in our collective interests that the postponed elections
should hold on the rescheduled dates; that they should be free and fair; that
their outcomes should be respected by all parties; and that any form of
extension, under whichever guise, is unconstitutional and will not be
tolerated.
With the fall of
the Berlin Wall in 1989, the dissolution of the USSR in 1991, the collapse of
communism and the end of the Cold War, democracy became the dominant and most
preferred system of government across the globe. That global transition has
been aptly captured as the triumph of democracy and the ‘most pre-eminent
political idea of our time.’ On a personal note, the phased end of the USSR was
a turning point for me. It convinced me that change can be brought about
without firing a single shot.
As you all know,
I had been a military head of state in Nigeria for twenty months. We intervened
because we were unhappy with the state of affairs in our country. We wanted to
arrest the drift. Driven by patriotism, influenced by the prevalence and
popularity of such drastic measures all over Africa and elsewhere, we fought
our way to power. But the global triumph of democracy has shown that another
and a preferable path to change is possible. It is an important lesson I have
carried with me since, and a lesson that is not lost on the African continent.
In the last two
decades, democracy has grown strong roots in Africa. Elections, once so rare,
are now so commonplace. As at the time I was a military head of state between
1983 and 1985, only four African countries held regular multi-party elections.
But the number of electoral democracies in Africa, according to Freedom House,
jumped to 10 in 1992/1993 then to 18 in 1994/1995 and to 24 in 2005/2006.
According to the New York Times, 42 of the 48 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa
conducted multi-party elections between 1990 and 2002.
The newspaper
also reported that between 2000 and 2002, ruling parties in four African countries
(Senegal, Mauritius, Ghana and Mali) peacefully handed over power to victorious
opposition parties. In addition, the proportion of African countries
categorized as not free by Freedom House declined from 59% in 1983 to 35% in
2003. Without doubt, Africa has been part of the current global wave of
democratisation.
But the growth
of democracy on the continent has been uneven. According to Freedom House, the
number of electoral democracies in Africa slipped from 24 in 2007/2008 to 19 in
2011/2012; while the percentage of countries categorised as ‘not free’ assuming
for the sake of argument that we accept their definition of “free” increased
from 35% in 2003 to 41% in 2013. Also, there have been some reversals at
different times in Burkina Faso, Central African Republic, Cote D’Ivoire,
Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Lesotho, Mali, Madagascar, Mauritania and Togo. We can
choose to look at the glass of democracy in Africa as either half full or half
empty.
While you can’t
have representative democracy without elections, it is equally important to
look at the quality of the elections and to remember that mere elections do not
democracy make. It is globally agreed that democracy is not an event, but a
journey. And that the destination of that journey is democratic consolidation –
that state where democracy has become so rooted and so routine and widely
accepted by all actors.
With this
important destination in mind, it is clear that though many African countries
now hold regular elections, very few of them have consolidated the practice of
democracy. It is important to also state at this point that just as with
elections, a consolidated democracy cannot be an end by itself. I will argue
that it is not enough to hold a series of elections or even to peacefully
alternate power among parties.
It is much more
important that the promise of democracy goes beyond just allowing people to
freely choose their leaders. It is much more important that democracy should
deliver on the promise of choice, of freedoms, of security of lives and
property, of transparency and accountability, of rule of law, of good
governance and of shared prosperity. It is very important that the promise
embedded in the concept of democracy, the promise of a better life for the
generality of the people, is not delivered in the breach.
Now, let me
quickly turn to Nigeria. As you all know, Nigeria’s fourth republic is in its
16th year and this general election will be the fifth in a row. This is a major
sign of progress for us, given that our first republic lasted five years and
three months, the second republic ended after four years and two months and the
third republic was a still-birth. However, longevity is not the only reason why
everyone is so interested in this election.
The major
difference this time around is that for the very first time since transition to
civil rule in 1999, the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is facing its
stiffest opposition so far from our party the All Progressives Congress (APC).
We once had about 50 political parties, but with no real competition. Now
Nigeria is transitioning from a dominant party system to a competitive
electoral polity, which is a major marker on the road to democratic
consolidation. As you know, peaceful alternation of power through competitive
elections have happened in Ghana, Senegal, Malawi and Mauritius in recent
times. The prospects of democratic consolidation in Africa will be further
brightened when that eventually happens in Nigeria.
But there are
other reasons why Nigerians and the whole world are intensely focussed on this
year’s elections, chief of which is that the elections are holding in the
shadow of huge security, economic and social uncertainties in Africa’s most
populous country and largest economy. On insecurity, there is a genuine cause
for worry, both within and outside Nigeria. Apart from the civil war era, at no
other time in our history has Nigeria been this insecure.
Boko Haram has
sadly put Nigeria on the terrorism map, killing more than 13,000 of our
nationals, displacing millions internally and externally, and at a time holding
on to portions of our territory the size of Belgium. What has been consistently
lacking is the required leadership in our battle against insurgency. I, as a
retired general and a former head of state, have always known about our
soldiers: they are capable, well trained, patriotic, brave and always ready to
do their duty in the service of our country.
You all can bear
witness to the gallant role of our military in Burma, the Democratic Republic
of Congo, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Darfur and in many other peacekeeping
operations in several parts of the world. But in the matter of this insurgency,
our soldiers have neither received the necessary support nor the required
incentives to tackle this problem. The government has also failed in any effort
towards a multi-dimensional response to this problem leading to a situation in
which we have now become dependent on our neighbours to come to our rescue.
Let me assure
you that if I am elected president, the world will have no cause to worry about
Nigeria as it has had to recently; that Nigeria will return to its stabilising
role in West Africa; and that no inch of Nigerian territory will ever be lost
to the enemy because we will pay special attention to the welfare of our
soldiers in and out of service, we will give them adequate and modern arms and
ammunitions to work with, we will improve intelligence gathering and border
controls to choke Boko Haram’s financial and equipment channels, we will be
tough on terrorism and tough on its root causes by initiating a comprehensive
economic development plan promoting infrastructural development, job creation,
agriculture and industry in the affected areas. We will always act on time and
not allow problems to irresponsibly fester, and I, Muhammadu Buhari, will
always lead from the front and return Nigeria to its leadership role in
regional and international efforts to combat terrorism.
On the economy,
the fall in prices of oil has brought our economic and social stress into full
relief. After the rebasing exercise in April 2014, Nigeria overtook South
Africa as Africa’s largest economy. Our GDP is now valued at $510 billion and
our economy rated 26th in the world. Also on the bright side, inflation has
been kept at single digit for a while and our economy has grown at an average
of 7% for about a decade.
But it is more
of paper growth, a growth that, on account of mismanagement, profligacy and
corruption, has not translated to human development or shared prosperity. A
development economist once said three questions should be asked about a
country’s development: one, what is happening to poverty? Two, what is
happening to unemployment? And three, what is happening to inequality?
The answers to
these questions in Nigeria show that the current administration has created two
economies in one country, a sorry tale of two nations: one economy for a few
who have so much in their tiny island of prosperity; and the other economy for
the many who have so little in their vast ocean of misery.
Even by official
figures, 33.1% of Nigerians live in extreme poverty. That’s at almost 60
million, almost the population of the United Kingdom. There is also the
unemployment crisis simmering beneath the surface, ready to explode at the
slightest stress, with officially 23.9% of our adult population and almost 60%
of our youth unemployed. We also have one of the highest rates of inequalities
in the world.
With all these,
it is not surprising that our performance on most governance and development
indicators (like Mo Ibrahim Index on African Governance and UNDP’s Human
Development Index.) are unflattering. With fall in the prices of oil, which
accounts for more than 70% of government revenues, and lack of savings from
more than a decade of oil boom, the poor will be disproportionately impacted.
In the face of
dwindling revenues, a good place to start the repositioning of Nigeria’s
economy is to swiftly tackle two ills that have ballooned under the present administration:
waste and corruption. And in doing this, I will, if elected, lead the way, with
the force of personal example.
On corruption,
there will be no confusion as to where I stand. Corruption will have no place
and the corrupt will not be appointed into my administration. First and
foremost, we will plug the holes in the budgetary process. Revenue producing
entities such as NNPC and Customs and Excise will have one set of books only.
Their revenues will be publicly disclosed and regularly audited. The
institutions of state dedicated to fighting corruption will be given
independence and prosecutorial authority without political interference.
But I must
emphasise that any war waged on corruption should not be misconstrued as
settling old scores or a witch-hunt. I’m running for President to lead Nigeria
to prosperity and not adversity.
In reforming the
economy, we will use savings that arise from blocking these leakages and the
proceeds recovered from corruption to fund our party’s social investments programmes
in education, health, and safety nets such as free school meals for children,
emergency public works for unemployed youth and pensions for the elderly.
As a progressive
party, we must reform our political economy to unleash the pent-up ingenuity and
productivity of the Nigerian people thus freeing them from the curse of
poverty. We will run a private sector-led economy but maintain an active role
for government through strong regulatory oversight and deliberate interventions
and incentives to diversify the base of our economy, strengthen productive
sectors, improve the productive capacities of our people and create jobs for
our teeming youths.
In short, we
will run a functional economy driven by a worldview that sees growth not as an
end by itself, but as a tool to create a society that works for all, rich and
poor alike. On March 28, Nigeria has a decision to make. To vote for the
continuity of failure or to elect progressive change. I believe the people will
choose wisely.
In sum, I think
that given its strategic importance, Nigeria can trigger a wave of democratic
consolidation in Africa. But as a starting point we need to get this critical
election right by ensuring that they go ahead, and depriving those who want to
scuttle it the benefit of derailing our fledgling democracy. That way, we will
all see democracy and democratic consolidation as tools for solving pressing
problems in a sustainable way, not as ends in themselves.
Prospects
for Democratic Consolidation in Africa: Nigeria’s Transition
Permit me to
close this discussion on a personal note. I have heard and read references to
me as a former dictator in many respected British newspapers including the well
regarded Economist. Let me say without sounding defensive that dictatorship
goes with military rule, though some might be less dictatorial than others. I
take responsibility for whatever happened under my watch.
I cannot change
the past. But I can change the present and the future. So before you is a
former military ruler and a converted democrat who is ready to operate under
democratic norms and is subjecting himself to the rigours of democratic
elections for the fourth time.
You may ask: why
is he doing this? This is a question I ask myself all the time too. And here is
my humble answer: because the work of making Nigeria great is not yet done,
because I still believe that change is possible, this time through the ballot,
and most importantly, because I still have the capacity and the passion to
dream and work for a Nigeria that will be respected again in the comity of
nations and that all Nigerians will be proud of.
I thank you for
listening.
